Showing posts with label Tech Policy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tech Policy. Show all posts

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Can social media propel 'rock star' politician Imran Khan to power in Pakistan?


In a country known for its constant chaos, nobody can make a crowd stop and listen quite like Imran Khan.

Whether commanding a rally of hundreds-of thousands in a Lahore park, a roundtable of experts in an Islamabad hotel or a garden of politicized housewives in a Karachi country club, Pakistan's legendary former cricket captain exudes charisma. Even his unfinished "peace rally" to protest hugely unpopular U.S. drone strikes - which Pakistani officials halted before it reached its destination in South Waziristan - earned him headlines around the world.

Khan, 60, is widely seen as one of the country's most popular politician as well as its most eligible bachelor.  And if opinion polls are to be believed, he will play a key role in the formation of Pakistan's next government. 

But Khan is not business as usual for Pakistan.

He commands serious star power despite not belonging to the landed or industrial dynasties that have ruled the country since its birth in 1947. Nor is he part of the country's military, which has governed the Islamic Republic for more than three of its six and half decades. Instead, he shot to fame as a star of cricket, a game that has a near-religious following in Pakistan.  On his way, he married - and divorced - glamorous British socialite Jemima Goldsmith.

He does not appear to court the traditional media, although it certainly chases him. 

The waiting list for television anchors and reporters hoping to snag a one-on-one with Khan is around two months long. He has written-off Pakistan's rambunctious mainstream and privately owned media as 
"prone to being corrupt" and "marginal to vested interests."

So what is the secret to Khan's success in projecting his political agenda across Pakistan?  In short, it's what he calls the "democratic and incorruptible" forces of Twitter, Facebook and other forms of social media.

Khan's messages -- which almost always hinge on his apparent anger over the United States' demands on Pakistan -- make him the country's most-followed presence on Facebook and Twitter.  He is particularly popular among Pakistan's wired urban youth.  But while Khan's popularity online cannot be contested, whether it will translate into victory at the ballot box remains the big question. 
'Taliban Khan'
Critics contend that Khan is simply bitter about criticism he's received from established members of the media.  In particular, journalists and commentators question the former cricket star's popular but difficult to implement policies -- an end to official corruption within 90 days, cessation of all hostilities with militants, halt to CIA drone attacks and rejection of American aid.

Especially since the assassination attempt on a 14-year-old education activist Malala Yousufzai, Khan's refusal to wholeheartedly condemn all militancy and terror has prompted his critics to call him soft on terror. 

While Khan's ideas have earned him the teasing but telling moniker "Taliban Khan" from members of the Westernized elite, they have proved wildly popular online.  

There is the official Facebook page for Khan (with about 487,000 'likes'). Its fans outnumber his party's official page by more than 100,000 members.


Khan also has about 400,000 followers on Twitter -- along with several assistants handling his and attached accounts -- tweeting rants, pictures and quotes from Pakistan's founders around the clock.
If social-media popularity equaled election results, Khan would already have a few terms under his belt.  

In fact, so pervasive is his online persona that his detractors have branded him a virtual politician.  
However, while Khan might be the country's most popular political figure, he is hardly the Islamic Republic's most powerful; he boycotted the last election and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) or Movement for Justice party, has no presence in a parliament.

Wired, but do they vote?
Whether Khan can translate online support into victory at the ballot box is highly contested. (When new elections will actually be held hasn't been decided although many expect them to be held in spring or summer 2013.) 

"Imran Khan's base, his core support, is urban, middle class and educated -- precisely the cohort that has access to the Internet and spends time online," Cyril Almeida, who pens one of Pakistan's most-read columns for Dawn newspaper, told NBC News. "Hence, his substantial online support. ... PTI is building a voter base starting from the social media."

 Almeida acknowledges that former President Pervez Musharraf -- who led the country from 2001 to 2008 and now lives in exile in London -- also has a substantial online following but "wouldn't win a local councilor seat if he stood for one."

"Imran is somewhere in between," Almeida said. "His rock star status online is wildly more exaggerated than his real-world support -- though he will win at least some seats come election time."

Others, like Fahd Hussain, a primetime anchor at Waqt TV, which belongs to one of Pakistan's oldest and most conservatively aligned news conglomerates, says the Internet could still generate a Khan "tsunami."

"[The] social media support base of Imran should not be ignored," Hussain said. "It's massive and growing and creates political momentum."

Others question what online popularity will translate into, if anything.

Gibran Peshimam, the political editor of the Express Tribune newspaper, says that while Khan may be a heavyweight on the Internet, he is more of a lightweight offline.  

"The percentage of Pakistan's population that has access to the Internet barely breaks the double-digit barrier," he told NBC News. "In any case, the majority percentage of those who have this access to the Internet, and hence social media, is a non-voting sector. The well-to-do generally do not vote in Pakistan. They talk about voting, but barely any of them are even registered to vote."

"Large-scale support on the Internet in Pakistan does translate into numbers, given the youth bulge, but it certainly does not translate into large numbers -- unlike, perhaps, in the U.S.," he added.

Dr Awab Alvi is Imran Khan's social media guru. A part-time politico, Alvi is an Ivy-League trained orthodontist by day, and the brains behind the powerful outfit that is Khan's social media machine by night.
Echoes of Obama '08?
The comparison to the United States is a common one in Pakistan, and linked to the Khan camp's obsession with President Barack Obama's 2008 campaign in which social media played a key role in fundraising as well as getting younger Americans out to vote. So-called Khanophiles constantly point to the Obama '08 template as one that can be replicated, with some qualifications and modifications, in the Islamic Republic.

Two such Khanophiles are Awab Alvi and Faisal Javed.
Alvi is a tall, soft-spoken and self-declared geek who signs his emails as BDS, MSc & TED Senior Fellow.

Although Alvi, is a University of Pennsylvania-trained orthodontist who says he does not hold any office in the burgeoning PTI, the 36-year-old's non-stop Twitter feed gives him away as Khan's constantly-connected social media wizard.  His user ID, Teeth Maestro, one of the best known in Pakistani cyberspace, hints at both his full-time hospital job in Karachi and his part-time political potency.

His blogs generate as much revenue as a successful small business, and the official site of the PTI that he helps administer often crashes because of the high traffic his online events generate.  Alvi says the PTI has a 25-strong social media team featuring "volunteers scattered all over the globe."

Faisal Javed, 31, is a telecom executive by day and a PTI deputy secretary by political leaning. He spends Monday to Friday at the chic Islamabad headquarters of Telenor, leading the Scandinavian cellular giant's advertisement buying and content strategy for Pakistan.

But his evenings and weekends are reserved for the PTI.  Javed, who opens rallies for Khan, is known nationally as Khan's "stage secretary," introducing him to crowds across the country. His easy confidence and broadcaster's voice make him one of the more prominent young faces of Khan's media-savvy corps.

Behind the scenes at Khan's first Google+ Hangout, the zeal to replicate Obama's PR accomplishments was obvious.  As soon as Khan rolled in (along with a small army of assistants, advisers and bodyguards), Alvi and his team adopted a very American, no-nonsense mood that is not typical of Pakistani culture.

They kicked out all people dubbed "non-essentials" and started what seemed like a haphazard pre-battle briefing.

"How many people are watching me?" Khan asked.

"Thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions might be watching," said Alvi and his lieutenants speaking over each other.

Khan: "What does this mean, 'Google Hangout'?"

Alvi/his geeks: "People submitted questions, and then voted in the most questions. In three days, 15,000 questions were submitted and 13,000 questions were crowd-sourced via (text messages)."
Khan: "Is this live?"

Alvi/his geeks: "Yes! Obama has done it too! Ten people from all over the country and the world will interact with you. The questions and questioners have been chosen. All you have to do is answer them."

The audio wouldn't connect for 20 minutes after the Hangout was scheduled, and even as the event went online, some anchors on Pakistan's infamous conspiracy-theory driven national television denounced the event as a "drama" which was "staged" and "not live," much to Alvi and his team's chagrin.  

A small Twitter/Facebook skirmish between the Khan camp and his detractors later ensued, where both sides argued over the "reality" of the Hangout. The skirmish lasted about a week.

But overall the Hangout event went pretty much as planned. Khan waxed eloquent about the economy, militancy, America, education and Pakistan's several other existential crises. He promised to raze the walls of governors' mansions, pledged to make them public libraries and explained progressive taxation to a female college student.

In what was perhaps the most important sign of success, the event caused #HangoutwithIK to trend on Twitter. But what really made political history in Pakistan was that the national conversation of the country was fully online and not broadcast on television and radio for the first time. 

Later, Javed unwound with a Marlboro.

"You know why he did it? You know how he handled all those questions? Because he's neat and clean and has nothing to hide," he said.

What of the rural heartland?
Still, even if Khan's PTI wins seats in parliament on the back of his social-media campaign, he is still a long way from power, some analysts say. 

"The next step, to premiership, goes through the dusty, deceitful and a whole-lot-less-plugged-in territory of Pakistan's rural heartland," political editor Peshimam says.

Most of Pakistan's civilian power players have traditionally relied on the country's teeming rural areas for their support-bases.

Asif Ali Zardari's Pakistan People's Party, which leads the current coalition government, is entrenched in rural Sindh  -- the country's second-most populous province. Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (N-???) has always relied on, and thus come to dominate, the lush swathes of central and northern Punjab.

While Khan is pushing hard to topple the de facto but unofficial two-party system by becoming a third force via social media, Pakistan remains a poor and rural-majority country where just 20 million of its 180-million people are connected to the Internet.

"Several polls show that as a leader Imran Khan is very popular," says Raza Rumi, director of policy and programs at Islamabad-based think tank The Jinnah Institute. "(But) there are methodological problems with such surveys and often their urban bias has also been called into question.

"Khan will emerge as a political player in the next parliament but it would be premature to say what would be the strength of his party," Rumi added. "His huge presence on social media is linked to a substantial following, especially in the young segment of population. There is a strong relationship here. 

But to assume that Facebook or Twitter rankings will result in electoral gains across Pakistan would be wrong."

But Khanophiles like Javed, the telecom executive, aren't discouraged by such such sober assessments. 
"We can't ignore this medium.  There are two million of us [supporting PTI on social media]. And those two million have millions of friends and family members," he said during preparations for the Google+ Hangout session.

"And while you may be right again that those two million are largely in the cities, they are a degree or two away from spreading our message to the towns and villages. And that's good enough for me."


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Saturday, October 13, 2012

Google Chairman Eric Schmidt Raps Apple on iPhone Maps, Floats Yahoo! Search Pact


Google’s executive chairman Eric Schmidt was in Tokyo Tuesday, and he used the occasion to express his frustration with Apple’s decision to yank Google Maps off the new iPhone 5. That move prompted a minor furor in the tech world, because Apple’s map application is inferior to Google Maps, which is generally viewed as the gold standard for mass-market mobile mapping products. Schmidt, who served on Apple’s board of directors until 2009, when Steve Jobs kicked him off over the obvious Android conflict-of-interest, asserted that Google would like to remain partners with Apple on a variety of mobile fronts, including web search, but acknowledged that the ball remains in Apple’s court. Schmidt also made some eyebrow-raising remarks about the possibility that Google, the undisputed web search leader, might link up with its erstwhile competitor Yahoo!, which is now run by a well-respected Google alumna.

The iPhone 5 maps dustup is just the latest front in an epic battle between Google and Apple for supremacy in the mobile computing market. Apple’s late co-founder Steve Jobs went utterly ballistic when Google launched its Android mobile operating system. He was convinced that Android was ripping off Apple’s iPhone features. So he kicked Schmidt off the board, launching an increasingly bitter rivalry between the two tech giants that continues to this day. Apple’s worldwide intellectual property (patent) campaign against Samsung, HTC, and other Google partners (including the search giant’s newly acquired Motorola Mobility division) is really a proxy fight against Android, which Tim Cook continues to wage on behalf of his departed mentor.
Apple and Google’s mobile models are diametrically opposed. Apple has succeeded with end-to-end control over the iPhone process, from hardware to software to mobile apps. Google’s model is to unleash the Android system for free to the hardware and developer community at large, in order to leverage the power of developers and builders worldwide. The result is that Apple makes vastly more money on each iPhone it sells, while Android has chalked up astonishing market-share gains, growing to lead the global mobile OS market in just 5 years.

Apple’s decision to yank Google Maps off the new iPhone is a classic Apple maneuver — using its market power to favor its own products. Unfortunately, in this case, Apple’s map product is inferior to Google’s, which has caused significant agita in the tech community. Speaking to reporters in Tokyo Tuesday, Schmidt’s frustration with Apple’s map decision was palpable beneath the surface of his relentlessly wonky demeanor.

“We think it would have been better if they had kept ours. But what do I know?” Schmidt told reporters in comments cited by Reuters. “What were we going to do, force them not to change their mind? It’s their call.” Indeed it is. This map flare-up is a consequence of Apple’s ironclad control of its flagship iPhone product. At the end of the day, Apple CEO Tim Cook is responsible for his own company, but the decision to boot Google Maps off the iPhone 5 in favor of its inferior product has triggered a sour reaction from the tech community, because it comes from a company — Apple — that ostensibly values the user experience above all else.

Schmidt went on to say that Google hopes to remain a partner with Apple on mobile web search, but admitted that he has no control over the Cupertino, Calif.-based tech giant’s decision-making process. “I’m not doing any predictions,” Schmidt told reporters in comments cited by Reuters. “We want them to be our partner. We welcome that. I’m not going to speculate at all what they’re going to do. They can answer that question as they see fit,” he said. Google has somewhat more leverage on this front, because it dominates the web search market. What is Apple going to do? Strike a deal with its mortal enemy Microsoft to make Bing (which powers Yahoo! search) the default iPhone mobile web search provider? I don’t think so.

Schmidt also took a dig at Apple’s mobile strategy, and chastised the tech media for being ”obsessed with Apple’s marketing events and Apple’s branding,” and ignoring Android’s success. He added that his rival’s world-beating publicity machine is ”great for Apple but the numbers are on our side.”
Finally, Schmidt made some rather startling comments about the possibility that Google might link up with its one-time rival Yahoo! on a web search partnership, as picked up by Eric Jackson over at Forbes. This is not going to happen — regulators would never allow it. Jackson, who is a smart tech-watcher (and Yahoo! shareholder), seems to think this is a plausible idea, and he makes a good point. Times have changed: Yahoo! has largely exited the web search market, thanks to its deal with Microsoft. But it’s not going to happen. Google controls 70% of the web search market. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) will never allow a company with that kind of market power to assume control over the search business of the number three player in the space. (At least I hope not.) But the fact that Schmidt raised the possibility of a Google-Yahoo! pact is a reflection of how quickly the big-tech ecosystem is evolving.

Ultimately, we’re watching an epic war between two tech icons — Apple and Google — over control of the smartphone market. Everyone agrees that the locus of competition in the Internet space is shifting to mobile devices. This is the next great battle in the war for the Web. The recent iPhone maps flap is just one front in this conflict. Intellectual property is another. Competition between these two powerful tech companies has been a huge boon to consumers — innovation in the mobile phone and tablet market is proceeding at break-neck speed. This fight is incremental, global, and increasingly bitter, as Schmidt’s thinly-veiled jabs at Apple illustrate. Both companies are sitting on massive stockpiles of cash, and pouring billions of dollars into research and development. As we head into the fall, the war between Apple and Google is the hottest game in town.